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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.