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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still