🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|