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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.