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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”